Wade Hampton, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

753
FXUS62 KGSP 112348
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
748 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture over the Southeast will continue scattered to
numerous showers with mainly afternoon thunderstorms through
midweek.  As a somewhat shallow upper ridge builds over our region
during the last half of the week, temperatures warm to near normal
and continue through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 737 pm EDT: Numerous showers, and a few thunderstorms, and
more patches of light rain continue to develop and drift toward the
N and NW in a modest upslope flow of moisture from the Atlantic
and Gulf. Expect a downward trend in coverage as we get into the
middle part of the evening, but in reality, additional showers could
develop just about any place and/or any time given the deep moisture
and high precipitable water near 2 inches expected through the
period. Not much is expected in terms of severe weather potential
given weak lapse rates and modest sbCAPE generally only 500-1500
J/kg across the Piedmont, but the flash flood potential will have to
be monitored closely overnight. There is an emerging consensus that
coverage may increase to numerous+ toward daybreak as a low level
jet increases to around 20 kts. Fortunately, this flow is forecast
to veer to more of a S/SW regime, so we should not see a repeat
of the widespread upslope heavy rain that was observed across the
NC foothills this past morning. Nevertheless, the threat of heavy
rainfall will continue, with locally excessive rainfall possible,
especially if heavy rain does manage to materialize again over the
NC foothills, where 2.5-4+ inches have fallen since this morning.

Convective trends will be a little difficult to pin down for Tue
afternoon, as destabilization will depend upon if and where morning
convection becomes prevalent. Nevertheless, the pattern will be
supportive of at least scattered activity during the afternoon, and
60-80 PoPs are advertised across most of the CWA, with heavy/locally
excessive rainfall remaining the primary concern. Min temps tonight
will be a little above normal, maxes will be 5-10 degrees below
normal under persistent cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1213 PM Monday: Upper ridging over the Atlantic slowly
retrogrades and becomes centered over Florida and far southern
portions of the Gulf states by Wednesday into Thursday. While
heights will slowly rise across the region, the southern
Appalachians will remain on the northern flank of the ridge with a
wetter pattern continuing into at least Wednesday morning. The first
focus of the short term period will be overnight Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning as a well defined trough slides across the
Great Lakes region. Low-level mass response to a deepening low over
southern Ontario in concert with anticyclonic flow around the upper
ridge will draw a plume of deep moisture across the area from the
south/southwest. PWATs will surge into the 2-2.25" range, which is
well above the 90th percentile and would challenge the daily record
high PWAT at Peachtree City, GA. A 20-30kt low-level jet along with
a mid-level speed max will also translate across the area with
copious moisture transport in the cloud-bearing layer. Forecast
soundings reveal deep saturated profiles with moderately high
freezing levels and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The result will be the
potential for a cluster of convection to lift out of north Georgia
and into the area generally along and north of I-85. This activity
may also be accompanied by a meso low which would further provide
support and focus to any convective cluster. Given the
aforementioned environment, these showers and storms would be
capable of producing very efficient rainfall with locally heavy
rainfall of 2-4" possible with isolated higher totals not out of the
question. As such, will need to closely monitor the potential for at
least a few instances of flash flooding overnight Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning.

Plentiful coverage of convective debris clouds could throw a wrench
into the forecast for the remainder of the day on Wednesday. More
typical diurnally driven convection will be possible where breaks in
the clouds occur and more warming and subsequent destabilization
materialize. High temperature forecast may also be in jeopardy with
a cloudier forecast likely cutting a number of degrees off of the
currently forecast highs. A somewhat similar pattern continues into
Thursday as the center of the upper ridge becomes fully established
over Florida. Very deep moisture remains entrenched over the area
with the potential for another overnight bout of locally heavy
rainfall followed by the potential for diurnal afternoon/early
evening convection. Forcing mechanisms become more nebulous early
Thursday morning with mesoscale details that are too murky at this
time range playing a large role in driving any overnight convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1257 PM Monday: Heading into Friday and the weekend, upper
ridging over Florida continues its slow retrograde with the center
of the ridge gradually shifting west along the Gulf Coast and
becoming focused over far southeast Texas into Louisiana by Sunday.
More seasonable late summer weather returns with highs around normal
and a chance for isolated to scattered diurnal convection each day.
Flow eventually shifts to out of the northwest late in the period as
the upper ridge inches westward with the potential for a couple weak
waves to drop across the Ohio Valley and towards the area. If this
were to occur it could support a focus for greater coverage of
storms, but forecast confidence remains low that far out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Continued busy across the region for the
better part of the next 24 hours as a weak easterly to southeasterly
flow of moisture keeps forcing the development of chaotic low cloud
layers and numerous to widespread showers and patches of light
rain. Wind will generally be light from the SE to S. A myriad of
flight conditions was noted at the start of the period, but the
general consensus of the model guidance is that the low clouds
will fill in MVFR this evening after sunset, then gradually drop to
widespread IFR with some LIFR possible. Vis is harder to pin down
and may depend on the coverage of precip, which should continue in
spots overnight. For Tuesday, the flow should veer around even more
southerly, so eventually the warm advection will help to lift the
boundary layer and scatter out the IFR restriction. Eventually,
MVFR ceiling should also scatter to VFR, then convective storm
coverage will increase in the afternoon. So, bottom line, a threat
for flight restrictions most places for at least the next 18 hours.

Outlook: Mostly diurnal showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions are expected across the area each day this week,
with a period of more widespread showers and storms possible
Tue night/early Wed. Morning fog/low stratus is also possible,
especially across the mountain valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...PM